Mohamed Bouaziz was just ten years old when he became the main provider for his family. When he was 26, he made his money by selling vegetables and fruits off an old wagon in the Tunisian city of Sidi Bouzid.
Ten years ago this week (December 17, 2010), Sidi Bouzid policemen seized Mohamed's produce for the umpteenth time, but this time the local police also beat and humiliated him in public. Mohamed walked to the town hall and tried to get his vegetables and fruits back, but no one would talk to him. He then walked outside, drenched himself in gasoline, and lit himself on fire. All around the world, news media and social media started broadcasting Mohamed's story across the Middle East. By the time he died on January 4, 2001, protesters who knew the hopelessness and pain that drove Bouazizi to suicide had packed Tunisian streets demanding reform. Just ten days after Mohamed's death, Tunisian President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali was forced to leave after being in power for over two decades. The demonstrations spread throughout the Middle East. Decades of strongman dictatorship in the region left the ground dangerously depleted, but Mohamed Bouaziz lit the match that ignited a revolution. This week is the 10th anniversary of the beginning of the Arab Spring. What is the legacy of Mohamed Bouazizi? Aspirations that "people power" revolutions would yield a democratic awakening in the region have been dashed. Only in Tunisia, Mohamed Bouazizi's home has created a democracy. Protests in Egypt overthrew Hosni Mubarak, and elections were held. Still, Egypt's military toppled the elected president after one year in office and restored control of its politics. Yemen, Syria, and Libya were all fallen into civil war. A staggering half of the Syrian population ten years ago have been killed or forced from their homes, and the resulting refugee crisis capsized politics and societies in Western Europe. In the past decade, many protestors of the Arab Spring demanded an end to endemic corruption, freedom of expression, and more and better opportunities for young men and women like Bouaziz. Sadly, the best available evidence shows that there are just as many crooks in power, more jobless young people, and more journalists in jail a decade later. Perhaps the most disturbing story of all is that the tools and technologies that drew attention to Mohamed Bouazizi's tragedy and raised hopes for change have contributed to the ensuing devastation. From Cairo's Tahrir Square, Facebook, Twitter, and other social medial platforms helped protesters spread their message, organize demonstrations, and capture the world's attention. Unfortunately, Islamic State militants were soon applying these same tools to recruit terrorists to Syria and Iraq and coordinate attacks in Europe and beyond. With guidance from Russian engineers, Syria's Bashar al-Assad also used social media to disseminate disinformation and propaganda to tens of millions of people. The use of bots that didn't exist ten years ago has added to the problem's scale. Arab Spring has for now given way to Arab Winter. The Story of the Middle East is far from over. The Middle East region has been held together floor centuries by strongmen backed by outside powers -Ottoman, European, American. With little history of broadly shared power, lasting progress toward individual freedom, if it comes, will take many more decades. Mohamed Bouazizi's country, Tunisia, now has a government that, nevertheless imperfectly, must answer to voters. For now, that's the most I can say for Mohamed's legacy.
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As we are wrapping up 2020, I look back at my behavior, mostly locked down and home. The adoption of new technological behaviors and practices in response to the pandemic, from video-conferencing on Google Hangout to online shipping on Amazon, suggests adopting these tools and platforms has now reached levels that were not foreseen for many more years or decades.
In May 2020, McKinsey's report suggested that we have jumped five years ahead in consumer and business digital adoption in a matter of just eight weeks. Just look at our behavior in online shopping. In the US alone, progress was even more rapid: "ten years' growth in three months." Let's look at how we do banking around the world. The percentage of cashless transactions globally has jumped to levels we had anticipated to see in two to five years. In medicine, the British NHS had experienced a decade of change within a week, as doctors switched to remote consultation and telemedicine. COVID-19 carried with it an enormous wave of tech-celeration. Look around you; the pandemic has expedited existing trends of technological adoption. Shopping was reasonably steadily moving online; payments were slowly going digital; online learning was slowly becoming more common; more people worked from home, at least some of the time. Now people in many countries have been abruptly moved into a future where all of these behaviors are far more widespread. The pandemic and its abrupt transformation have been painful and disturbing. Many retailers, now in difficulty, have been pushed into bankruptcy. In America, household names such as J.C. Penny, Neiman Marcus, and J CREW (one of my favorites) are gone. In every city in America, bank branches closing, older adults unfamiliar with online banking have been targeted by scammers. The switch to online learning highlighted inequality in internet access and computer ownership among students. There is good news too. The transition has also sparked a fast transformation in many areas, prominently health and education, that are historically resistant to reform. Mass lockdowns' enforced experiment has de-stigmatized online learning and remote working by showing that they can work at scale with the right tools and support. Perhaps one of the most critical questions for 20201 is: how much will things around us go back to pre-pandemic time? I don't think the world is going to return to its pre-pandemic state. Many stores, even restaurants, have closed. Even Italian grannies have realized the joys of online shopping, and they are putting it to the test this holiday season. Home-workers are in no hurry to return to commuting five or sometimes six days a week. But nor will all the lockdown behavior of 2020 continue. Students and teachers are eager to return to in-person classes. Even workers also miss the camaraderie of the office. So some new behaviors will still, but not all, and the result will be somewhere in the middle. But where will it have enormous implications? I think transportation models, property prices, and even our cities' design, among other things. By 2020 according to a recent McKinsey report, 15% of executives who took part in an international poll expect to allow a tenth of their workers to work remotely for two or more days a week, and 75% were willing to stretch this to three days a week. But those averages hide wide variation. In Germany and Europe, 20% of respondents were happy for at least one in ten workers to work remotely two or more days a week: in China, the figure was just 4%. And among technology executives, the proportion stood at 34%, surprisingly up from 22% before the pandemic. Firms in sectors like technology and finance can also operate more efficiently without employees on site. But even in industries where fully remote working is possible, the most likely outcome is a hybrid future that mixes remote and in-person working. I believe the future is now. Companies like those that provide services in the cloud or devices that support remote working will get more powerful. Others, like brick-and-mortar retailers, will suffer. Many will fail altogether. But once again, there is a silver lining, as these developments open up new fields for innovation. Now companies big and small are devising new means to improve the experience of remote working, collaboration, and learning: to promote new kinds of contactless and appointment-based retailing: and to provide new types of online social occasions, from virtual conferencing to virtual tourism or museum visits. There is no going back to the past that lived before the pandemic. Alternatively, COVDI-19 has moved the world into a very different future. |
AuthorRoozbeh, born in Tehran - Iran (March 1984) Archives
April 2024
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